OPINION: If there were any real profit to be extracted from SpaceX, Anthropic or OpenAI at the offering valuations, do you honestly think they would allow the public RETAIL investors to have all that profit?
Not on your life. Insiders would gobble up all the shares and reap all the profits for themselves.
They aren't taking these companies public because they have angelic hearts and want to "spread the wealth" to the masses while reducing their own take-home wealth. They are taking them public because they need a new wave of bag holders so the insiders can cash out.
If you're buying these IPOs at retail, you're the bag holder. You're the sucker. The insiders are done frontrunning the entire scheme and YOU are their exit cashout.
The only real way to profit from IPOs these days is to be on the ISSUING side of the IPO, while talking up your bag so that the public masses line up to buy your overpriced shares.