How high does oil have to go before Trump's 5D chess kicks in? Just curious... It's already $112 / barrel and has DOUBLED since 3 months ago...

Note: - Polymers: major supply disruption - Dubai port fire hit ~65% of GCC polymer export capacity

The GCC is one of the larger exporters of polymer products for the world. It consumes relatively little of what it produces.

This means clothing prices are about to explode. And HDPE containers. Food containers. Supplement bottles. Lids, barrels, you name it.

By waging war on Iran, Trump just caused a global supply chain crisis and a price inflation crisis that's going to get a LOT worse in the coming months... even if the war stops tomorrow. The supply chain has already been cut.

Hope you own some gold and silver. Because EVERYTHING is going to be skyrocketing in price, due to Trump's war. Here's what's on the board so far:

ENERGY
- Oil (WTI/US Crude): +36% - $90.90/barrel, up from $67 pre-war
- Oil (Brent/Global): +25%+ - above $92/barrel, up from ~$70
- US Gasoline (retail): +~13% - $3.38-3.46/gal, up 35-43 cents in one week
- Jet Fuel: +87%
- LNG (global): +106%
- European Natural Gas (TTF): +50% on the week - biggest weekly surge since summer 2023; intra-week peak of +76-100%
- US Natural Gas: +5%

SHIPPING & FREIGHT
- VLCC Supertanker Day Rates: +201%+ - all-time record $423,736/day, up from ~$140K pre-war
- LNG Carrier Rates: +529%
- Middle East-Asia Tanker Rates (TD3C): ~+200% - nearly tripled since January 2026
- VLCC Spot Rate (Clarksons Research): ~+900% - ~$350,000/day vs ~$35,000 in early January
- War-Risk Maritime Insurance Premiums: +1,000%+ in some cases
- Marine Hull Insurance (Gulf region): +25-50% (Marsh estimate)
- Container War Risk Surcharge: NEW - Hapag-Lloyd $1,500/TEU standard; $3,500/TEU reefer/special
- Ship Insurance per voyage ($100M tanker): from ~$200,000 to ~$1,000,000 per single transit
- Pre-war insurance (per strait transit): +60-100%+ before war even began, from 0.125% to 0.2-0.4% of hull value

METALS
- Aluminum: +20%
- Copper: +23% year-over-year - near record highs ~$5.80-5.93/lb
- Gold: +~4-6% since strikes began - surged from ~$5,100 to $5,300-5,418/oz; up ~18% year-to-date
- Silver: surging - tested $95/oz, catching safe-haven bid alongside gold
- Platinum: +2.8%+ in recent sessions

AGRICULTURE & FERTILIZERS
- Fertilizer (broad index): +36%
- Urea (nitrogen fertilizer): +~17% - up ~$80/ton from ~$470 pre-war; could double if disruptions persist
- Sulfur: effectively no spot supply available anywhere - prices spiking with zero liquidity
- Ammonia: severe supply disruption and price spikes - 33% of global supply transits Hormuz
- Phosphate fertilizers (DAP/MAP): rising sharply due to sulfur and ammonia input shortages

PETROCHEMICALS & REFINED PRODUCTS
- Naphtha: +26%
- Diesel/Gasoil: surging - crack spreads spiking as refineries close across the Gulf
- Polymers: major supply disruption - Dubai port fire hit ~65% of GCC polymer export capacity

FOOD
- Food prices (forward warning): UK Food Policy Institute warning of long-term increases driven by fuel and fertilizer disruptions
- Sugar: supply disrupted - Hormuz is a key transit route for sugar shipments

FINANCIAL/MACRO
- US Dollar Index: +0.95% on Day 1 - safe-haven demand
- Global inflation risk: Goldman Sachs projects +0.8% to global inflation if disruptions persist
- US Treasury yields: rising - higher inflation and defense spending expectations
- War-risk insurance (cargo, per voyage): being repriced on a voyage-by-voyage basis across all energy and bulk commodity shipments