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On U.S. occupation to protect oil interests:
The initial invasion and subsequent occupation cause a catastrophic breakdown in food distribution, medical services, and civil administration. Famine and disease spread. A protracted, bloody insurgency coalesces, uniting former regime loyalists, criminal networks, and nationalist citizens. Millions more refugees flood into Colombia and Brazil, destabilizing the region. The insurgency adopts hybrid tactics: commercially-sourced drone attacks on occupation bases, cyber-attacks on US-administered oil infrastructure, and systematic sabotage of mining facilities to deny the US their benefit.
On the ramifications for China, US defense contractors and the automotive industry:
China, which had been sourcing significant quantities of Venezuelan silver for its industrial base, is forced into panic buying on the open market. This results in a historic decoupling of paper silver prices (e.g., COMEX futures) from the physical market, where premiums for immediate delivery skyrocket. Gold and other precious metals (platinum, palladium) would see a parallel safe-haven surge, breaking all previous nominal records as institutional and central bank buyers seek assets outside the Western financial system. Equity markets exhibit extreme sectoral volatility: US defense contractors (Lockheed Martin, Raytheon), oil service companies (Halliburton, Schlumberger), and mining firms rally sharply on war and reshoring prospects. Conversely, global manufacturing, automotive, and consumer electronics sectors face severe, multi-standard-deviation sell-offs on input cost fears. A specific "war contango" develops in futures markets, with extreme backwardation in physical commodity contracts as the market prices in immense near-term scarcity and logistical chaos.
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