Here's a bombshell global famine analysis you haven't heard anywhere else:
For each day that the war with Iran continues, about 400 million people will face a day with no food in the 2027-2028 time frame. (I will show you the math.)
Even more shockingly, MOST of the starvation and food desperation will occur in nations that have no involvement whatsoever in this war.
Thus, the current casualties on the ground, of U.S. soldiers, Iranians or Israelis, will be absolutely dwarfed by the number of famine casualties around the world (largely concentrated in SE Asia, Africa and some Middle Eastern countries such as Somalia).
Here's the math:
It is broadly understood by most food scientists and agricultural analysts that synthetic fertilizers currently feed about half the world's population: roughly 4 billion people.
If you conduct deep research on the percentage of synthetic fertilizer that comes out of the Persian Gulf, mostly via natural gas extraction and the Haber-Bosch process to create nitrogen-based fertilizers, you come to find that Persian Gulf fertilizer production accounts to 8% - 12% of the world's total fertilizer production. (Most fertilizer is produced and consumed domestically and isn't traded on international markets, so even though Persian Gulf exports as much as one-third of globally TRADED fertilizer, it only accounts for 8% - 12% of global fertilizer production.)
If we settle on 10% here, then we realize that Persian Gulf fertilizer exports keep about 400 million people alive around the world. Thus, end to end, one day of halted fertilizer exports results in around 400 million people not having food for one day, in the end. (The pipeline is long and convoluted due to growing seasons, food harvests, stored food supplies, and so on.)
Similarly, 10 days of continued closure means roughly about 400 million people having nothing to eat for 10 days. Now, we have to account for the fact that people don't starve instantly. They can survive some period of time without food. This is typically limited to a few weeks. Few people can survive past 45 days without food. So unless food is redistributed from the food-abundant nations to the food-scarce nations, just 45 days of closure of the Strait of Hormuz creates an "air pocket" in the fertilizer supply chains that puts the lives of up to 400 million people at risk due to food scarcity, in its simplest form. But reality is more complex...
Especially when hungry, people are resourceful and most will take steps to avoid starving. There's the cannibalism factor when people start eating each other, for example. That can keep some groups fed for a while longer, although the people they eat obviously won't survive. Similarly, there will be much more local hunting of animals (even rats), dumpster diving, the eating of zoo animals, the neighbor's cat, etc. When hungry, people will eat shoe laces, leather, tree bark, cardboard and all sorts of other things they normally wouldn't eat, and when you see this behavior, you know things are bad.
There are also resourceful people who will refuse to die from starvation because they will hunt, kill and eat a variety of animals, or they will steal from grocery stores, hijack food delivery trucks, etc., in order to survive. And some food-abundant nations will make efforts to contribute food to those nations where famine is worsening. So I don't think anywhere near 400 million people will actually die from starvation. The number might be much smaller, perhaps just one-tenth: 40 million. But even then, that number is shockingly far higher than any number currently in the minds of anyone in the mainstream media, the White House, the Pentagon, or even the UN.
Almost nobody realizes the long-term mass famine repercussions of this ongoing war, and how Trump's actions are in effect risking the lives of potentially tens of millions of people IN THE FUTURE (next year, mostly), because of the long pipeline of energy fertilizer food. The e
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https://brightvideos.com/play/vid-3f2c07eb-bef2-4708-a6ca-4d5dda0cafe8/index.html
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